Which open markets won't resolve the way you think?
Most prediction-market disputes are predictable from the fine print. We score every open Polymarket market for resolution risk — how likely it is to settle ambiguously or be disputed — from its settlement language, complexity, and a 4.0% historical dispute base rate.
Riskiest open markets right now
1,500 open markets scored · showing the top 10 (free preview).
| Market | Risk | Top risk driver |
|---|---|---|
| Will Trump speak to Ahmed al-Sharaa in June? | 62high | subjective/interpretive language: considered, credible |
| Will Deutsche Bank fail by June 30, 2026? | 56high | subjective/interpretive language: considered, substantially |
| Will the Iranian regime survive U.S. military strikes? | 53high | subjective/interpretive language: consensus, considered |
| Tariff increase on Canada in effect by June 30? | 51high | 4 conditional/exception clauses (complex criteria) |
| Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026? | 48elevated | 5 conditional/exception clauses (complex criteria) |
| Will Safepoint not IPO before August 2026? | 48elevated | 6 conditional/exception clauses (complex criteria) |
| Epstein client list released by June 30? | 47elevated | subjective/interpretive language: commonly, credible |
| Iran leadership change by June 30? | 42elevated | 4 conditional/exception clauses (complex criteria) |
| 100% tariff on Canada in effect by June 30? | 42elevated | 4 conditional/exception clauses (complex criteria) |
| Will there be between 0 and 10 average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on June 30? | 42elevated | 4 conditional/exception clauses (complex criteria) |
What drives the score
The three patterns that actually cause disputes: definitional ambiguity (criteria that need a judgment call), timing / source fragility(when the “when” or “who” of settlement is shaky), and complexity (many conditional clauses). Every score shows its drivers — never a black box.
Why trust it
We grade ourselves: the score is validated against markets that were actually disputed, and the historical dispute rate is withheld until we have enough resolved markets to measure it. We publish the method and never fake a sample size.
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